Sonoma State University Political Science Professor David McCuan issued some interesting observations today about Tuesday’s election returns.
“If we’ve learned anything during this primary season,” he wrote, “it is that the voters defy easy analysis. From misconstrued polls to the absence of reasonable scrutiny, voters have bucked being on the proverbial couch for analysis. But one thing has remained clear: The fight over the direction of the major political parties is also shifting.”He catagorized the shifts as “The Gap,” “The Wave” and “The Spread.”The first refers to the difference in enthusiasm levels between the Democrats and Republicans. The difference in dollars raised between parties “is stark as well,” he noted.
“The Wave” refers to how voter participation was “huge” and could signal what is to come in the fall.As for the “The Spread,” well, here it is in his words:
“Just as in sports wagering, the spread matters. What happens in the battle for delegates and second place for the Democrats is as important as the popular vote totals.”Overall, he concludes: “So, why does all of this matter for November? There is a sea-change afoot in our politics. And that bodes ill for both parties later this year.”He added, “For both parties regardless of nominee, the theme that will arise will be that of ‘character.’ For the likely candidates in both major parties, this will become personal. Once again, we’ll enter a period where the fight will be bloody.”